If you are debating with yourself to get a gold security position or not, here are some thoughts of analysts taken from around the globe.
Suki Cooper, commodities analyst, Barclays Capital
Ms Cooper said: “We expect prices to maintain their upward momentum through to at least the first half of 2010, where we expect prices to average $1,140 in the second quarter. The unexpected purchase of gold by the Reserve Bank of India has only added to the positive sentiment towards gold. Even though gold’s attributes have not changed, we have seen a change in attitude from investors towards gold. From the official sector through to retail investors, there has been a structural shift in the demand side.”
Jim Rogers, chairman of Singapore-based Rogers Holdings
Mr Rogers argues that gold hasn’t begun to peak, adding that it will climb from a nominal record near $1,100 an ounce to $2,000 an ounce in the future. He said: “Just to get back to the old high back in 1980, adjusted for inflation, the price would need to be over $2,000 now. So we’ll certainly get there some time in the next decade.”
London Bullion Market Association
A poll of about 370 delegates at the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference predicted that gold would be at $1,181 in 12 months’ time. The poll covered 368 traders, analysts, miners and central bankers.
Ellison Chu, Standard Bank Asia
The Hong Kong based manager of precious metals at the bank expects the price of gold to maintain four-figure levels given the strong demand, particularly from Asia.
“India’s purchase [India’s central bank recently bought 200 tonnes of gold] had a psychological impact on investors. They think other central banks will also buy gold for their reserves. Gold will probably hang on to these high levels. We’re seeing good seasonal demand ahead of Christmas and the Chinese New Year.”
Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business
In an interview with Hard Assets Investor, Mr Roubini said there were only two scenarios that would see gold go much higher: inflation and Armageddon.
“We don’t have Armageddon, we don’t have inflation, so gold can maybe go slightly higher. But those people who delude themselves that gold can go to $1,500 or $2,000 are just talking nonsense. The fundamentals are not justified, and those people are just talking their books.”
David Levenstein, investment adviser
Writing on Mineweb, David Levenstein, a veteran of 29 years in futures, equities, forex and bullion, said gold appeared to be on course for a shift to $1,300 because of the gloomy outlook for the dollar.
“Frankly, I cannot see any bit of news that may suddenly appear that could have a miraculously powerful effect on the value of the dollar,” he wrote. “While my experience has taught me that it is very difficult to predict future prices, all the empirical evidence tends to indicate that we can expect much higher prices for gold.”
Bill Downey, investor and price analyst
“Cycles suggest we are nearing a pullback. We have arrived at a key resistance area at a time when key cycles are due. We’re modifying key resistance to $1,105-$1,110 followed by $1,132-$1,150. The potential for a high to be established this week and an autumn correction unfolding thereafter has grown significantly. We want to see at least a bit of price weakness first … but longs [those who hold gold] should be cautious.”
Now that you have every scenario covered, I guess the next step is to really look around you and make some notes: what is the unemployment rate? how many new jobs are listed in papers or websites? how many are bogus? how many people are in a store buying staff not related to food?
All these questions could somehow shed some light on the real situation of the economy. Knowing that gold is pretty much related to the dollar strength, which in turn is dependent on a strong economy, move accordingly and invest or not in gold.