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Simmering Hope

Hope is the expectation that something outside of ourselves, something or someone external, is going to come to our rescue and we will live happily ever after. – Dr. Robert Anthony

Archive for January, 2010

Jan 21, 2010

TheStreet to review what has been published about Adventrx

Directly from the horse’s mouth, as written on January 20, 2010 by Adam Feuerstein:

“re: culley – he sent me a private email over the weekend to discuss some of the things i wrote last Friday. I thought his points were reasonable, so i asked him if he’d like to re-work what he said so i could post it in my next mailbag column. he agreed and was happy to do so. i respect culley for debating the merits of ANX with me. clearly, we see things differently, but i respect what he has to say and i will repost his thoughts friday. why this leads you to question my credibility escapes me”

Well, let’s see why should one question Adam’s credibility?
For once because he is vitriolic and a real pit bull who will do anything in his power to help his buddies make money.
If that means to bend the truth, be it like that.

Now that the price of the stock drifted lower to levels acceptable to some players, yes, it’s time to come up with the real story, recant what he said a week ago, let the price go up and book profit.
Easy breezy.

As I mentioned before, we are talking about a company with only two employees, who happen to be managers as well. From the verge of bankruptcy, Mr. Culley thought and found a way out. To be punished for that it’s mean and similar to kicking somebody while down. This is the reason Mr. Feuerstein lost credibility.

Adventrx has been hyped by the stock market itself. They presented facts about their two drugs and people drew their own conclusions.
The fact that it’s been the top traded company on AMEX it’s only because of the super low share price and the huge potential it may have.
People dream about another DNDN, but I don’t think it’s going to happen exactly because the logistics are completely different.
I don’t believe Adventrx will reach $10 pps (although I would be very happy to be proven wrong), but $1-2 is a realistic target short term.

In a stock market driven by lies and manipulation, once in a while you may find a decent company and to see the character assassination done by a journalist who should be at least objective if nothing else, it makes your blood boil.

Good Luck Adventrx!

Jan 21, 2010

How China’s economic good news became stock market’s bad news

The first sign that something was brewing showed its ugly head on Wednesday, when stock market in the USA and Canada dropped.
Today, Thursday January 21, 2010, the drop continues. It’s definitely nerves racking and I decided to take a break from stock market and not take another glimpse on my securities.

Stocks dropped Wednesday, January 20, 2010, after China said it would curb bank lending to slow its economy.
On Thursday the country reported 10.7 percent economic expansion in the fourth quarter and 8.7 percent for all of last year. The numbers reinforced concerns that China will take more steps to tighten monetary policy and rein in its economy, which could hamper a global economic rebound.

If China puts brakes on its economy, the need for commodities will decrease and then we open the Pandora’s box again.

The second unpleasant event happened today, when President Obama Obama said he would seek to limit the size and complexity of large financial companies so that a bank’s collapse wouldn’t endanger the overall financial system.
Consequently, The Chicago Board Options Exchange’s Volatility Index jumped 17 percent. A rise in the VIX, which is known as the market’s fear index, signals that investors expect bigger swings in stocks.

Commodities – USD
Contract Last Change % Change
Crude Oil 77.00 -0.74 -0.95%
Natural Gas 5.56 +0.09 +1.61%
Coal 53.07 -0.93 -1.72%
Gold 1,103.20 -9.40 -0.84%
Silver 17.51 -0.37 -2.07%
Copper 3.30 -0.06 -1.79%

Data from: 2:27 PM ET, January 21, 2010
Note: Hard to understand why the Natural Gas is up, unless it’s pure market manipulation. There is no reason to be up.

The whole ‘economic recovery’ was a big fat lie, most people knew that. Some financial analysts predicted the double dip recession, with the second dip happening in the very near future.
The U.S. reported an increase in unemployment claims, and this is particularly hard because it means that new recipients showed up, while old recipients ran out of time and exhausted the much needed help, and probably right now are out of jobs and out of unemployment benefits.

In a nutshell: we are in big trouble. If the financial stimulus is going to be withdrawn, the bank regulations tightening will only make the matters worse.
With no financial help, there is no way to get out of this deep shit.

Maybe instead of giving again billion of dollars in bonus to bankers, the same bankers that caused the economic collapse and the same guys who benefited the most from being bailed out by the government, maybe the money should be given to the people suffering the most because of what happened due to the bankers’ greed.

Jan 17, 2010

Adventrx targeted by TheStreet

Adventrx is the second security I hold that has been attacked by TheStreet, namely by Adam Feuerstein.
Maybe to some people he is just an honest guy, protecting investors. Right? Not so fast. In my opinion he is the lowest of the lowest scums. Why? Because I truly believe that he serves the interest of the big guys engaged in the short and naked short plays. Using half truth or plain lies, he pushes the share price low in order to help his buddies cover their positions. Because let’s face it, he is not helping me or you or other small investors.

OK, so we have a penny company, Adventrx (ANX on AMEX) that happened to hold the title of the most traded one on AMEX for the past two weeks or so. I took position at $0.114 and have seen it jumped to $0.50. I should have sold and book in the profit. Instead, I decided to wait and see how the future events will unfold. In the mean time, the fantastic activity of this small company, with no debt and with only two employees, grabbed the attention of the above named Adam Feuerstein, who in his already known style, started a vitriolic attack.
Unfortunately to us, the investors and the company, this horrible human being has followers and his negative article had an impact on the share price.

One may think ‘Why is he interested in such a small company? Why not concentrate his efforts and time to attack… let’s say… maybe Goldman Sacks?’
I mean, if you are a real man, flex your muscles with the big players.
Anyway, karma is a bitch and sooner or later something bad will happen to the Adam guy. I don’t know, maybe a SEC investigation? maybe some time spent in jail to make him think twice before hurting so many people?

The reason for my post about Adventrx is to post a summary comment from a message board.
It shows pretty clear how Feuerstein distorted the reality.

—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes – “ANX-530 is the name of Adventrx’s reformulated vinorelbine currently under FDA review. ANX-530 appears to be bioequivalent to vinorelbine, based on the pharmacokinetic data that formed the basis of the FDA filing. Moreover, Adventrx says ANX-530 causes less vein irritation than vinorelbine when administered to patients”.

FACT – reformulated vinorelbine = new drug
New drug = New patents, LOL
—————————————————– —————————————–
Feuerstein writes – Adventrix chief Culley says the addressable commercial market opportunity for ANX-530 in non-small cell lung cancer is $200 million in the U.S. – but that’s a made up number and wildly unrealistic.

FACT – Guess this CLOWN missed his presentation!
Re-watch the video Culley said 200 million globally!
Never said 200 million in U.S., LOL
—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes – (Adventrx paid for the market research, so results aren’t exactly unbiased.)

FACT – All Companies use outside market research companies/firms for their data, LOL
—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes – “In the real world, doctors in the U.S. do not use very much vinorelbine to treat non-small cell lung cancer patients, which is why sales are so low. The preferred chemotherapy regimen here is a combination of carboplatin and paclitaxel. (Vinorelbine is used more in Europe.)

FACT – LOL because they don’t want to deal with the possible lawsuits, do to side affects
Used more in Europe? We are going WorldWide! LOL

—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes – Adventrx also has problems with its second pipeline drug, a reformulation of the chemotherapy drug docetaxel known as ANX-514.
Docetaxel, sold under the brand name Taxotere by Sanofi-Aventis, is a $3 billion-dollar chemotherapy drug, so Adventrx is targeting a very lucrative commercial market.
Unfortunately, Adventrx has not established crystal-clear bioequivalence between ANX-514 and docetaxel based on the results from the company’s small pharmacokinetic study. Culley concedes that he can’t file for approval based on the data he has so far. The company is going to meet with the FDA to establish next steps, which may involve more clinical trials.

FACT – Guess he missed this one too!!!
12/01/2009 10:26 am et
(RTTNews) – Adventrx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ANX: News ) reported that a new, recently completed preclinical study has affirmed the bioequivalence and comparable toxicity of ANX-514 and Taxotere.
Shin Poong Pharmaceuticals, Adventrx’s partner for ANX-514 in South Korea, independently conducted the study and data analysis.

That being said, I hope that my little security will survive the attack and climb back where it was before his malicious involvement.

Jan 10, 2010

Mercator Minerals- speculative share price forecast

I do hold position with Mercator Minerals (symbol ML on TSX: ML.TO) and considering that it’s made an impressive jump up since the end of 2009, I am wondering how much room is left before a typical correction pull back.

Following is a calculation made by a member of the Stockhouse Bull Board, named MoneyK.

Based on these numbers, here is his interpretation of the share price.

Q3 brought us revenues of:
Copper – 18 392 000$
Moly – 7 407 000$

Estimating an average sale price during this period of 2.50$ for copper and 11$ for moly, this gives us a production of:
Copper – 7 356 800 pounds
Moly – 673 364 pounds

Estimating that the production will remain the same in the next 3 quarters, this would mean that our annual production is now:
Copper – 29 427 200 pounds (target 50M lbs/year)
Moly – 2 693 454 pounds (target 10M lbs/year)

Now, calculating the annual revenus based on Q3 metal pricing, we get:
Copper – 73 568 000$
Moly – 29 627 972$
Total – 103 195 972$

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper – 29 427 200 * (2.50$ – 1$ ) = 44 140 800$
Moly – 2 693 452 * (11$ – 8.50$) = 6 733 630$
Total – 50 874 430$

50 874 430$ / 178M (shares) = 0.29$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 1.45$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 2.90$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 4.35$

We were right on at 2.90$

With current metal prices: (Copper 3.00$, Moly 12$)

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper – 29 427 200 * (3.00$ – 1$ ) = 58 854 400$
Moly – 2 693 452 * (12$ – 8.50$) = 9 427 082$

Total – 68 281 482$

68 281 482$ / 178M (shares) = 0.38$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 1.90$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 3.80$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 5.70$

We are now heading to 3.80$ IMOH

Potential with actual production and copper at 3.50$ and moly at 25$

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper – 29 427 200 * (3.50$ – 1$ ) = 73 568 000$
Moly – 2 693 452 * (25$ – 8.50$) = 44 481 958$

Total – 118 009 958$

118 009 958$ / 178M (shares) = 0.66$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 3.30$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 6.60$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 9.90$

We could see this shortly if moly goes up to 25$ and copper stays at 3.50$

Potential with full potential production and copper at 3.50$ and moly at 25$

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper – 50 000 000 * (3.50$ – 1$ ) = 125 000 000$
Moly – 10 000 000 * (25$ – 8.50$) = 165 000 000$

Total – 290 000 000$

290 000 000$ / 178M (shares) = 1.63$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 8.15$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 16.30$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 24.45$


Potential with full potential production and my crazy imagination (copper at 4.00$ and moly at 40$)

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper – 50 000 000 * (4.00$ – 1$ ) = 150 000 000$
Moly – 10 000 000 * (40$ – 8.50$) = 315 000 000$

Total – 465 000 000$

465 000 000$ / 178M (shares) = 2.61$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 13.05$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 26.10$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 39.15$

The last scenario is not likely to happen in the near future in my opinion, although some super optimistic persons may think that 2011 may bring such valuation.
But $3.80 I can see it happening.
The last SP was $3.23 but I am not sure it’s possible for the security to sustain the climb up without the necessary correction.

Some comparative charts to get a general idea about metals trend over the past two years follow.



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