Simmering Hope

Adventrx is the second security I hold that has been attacked by TheStreet, namely by Adam Feuerstein.
Maybe to some people he is just an honest guy, protecting investors. Right? Not so fast. In my opinion he is the lowest of the lowest scums. Why? Because I truly believe that he serves the interest of the big guys engaged in the short and naked short plays. Using half truth or plain lies, he pushes the share price low in order to help his buddies cover their positions. Because let’s face it, he is not helping me or you or other small investors.

OK, so we have a penny company, Adventrx (ANX on AMEX) that happened to hold the title of the most traded one on AMEX for the past two weeks or so. I took position at $0.114 and have seen it jumped to $0.50. I should have sold and book in the profit. Instead, I decided to wait and see how the future events will unfold. In the mean time, the fantastic activity of this small company, with no debt and with only two employees, grabbed the attention of the above named Adam Feuerstein, who in his already known style, started a vitriolic attack.
Unfortunately to us, the investors and the company, this horrible human being has followers and his negative article had an impact on the share price.

One may think ‘Why is he interested in such a small company? Why not concentrate his efforts and time to attack… let’s say… maybe Goldman Sacks?’
I mean, if you are a real man, flex your muscles with the big players.
Anyway, karma is a bitch and sooner or later something bad will happen to the Adam guy. I don’t know, maybe a SEC investigation? maybe some time spent in jail to make him think twice before hurting so many people?

The reason for my post about Adventrx is to post a summary comment from a message board.
It shows pretty clear how Feuerstein distorted the reality.

—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes - “ANX-530 is the name of Adventrx’s reformulated vinorelbine currently under FDA review. ANX-530 appears to be bioequivalent to vinorelbine, based on the pharmacokinetic data that formed the basis of the FDA filing. Moreover, Adventrx says ANX-530 causes less vein irritation than vinorelbine when administered to patients”.

FACT - reformulated vinorelbine = new drug
New drug = New patents, LOL
—————————————————– —————————————–
Feuerstein writes - Adventrix chief Culley says the addressable commercial market opportunity for ANX-530 in non-small cell lung cancer is $200 million in the U.S. - but that’s a made up number and wildly unrealistic.

FACT - Guess this CLOWN missed his presentation!
Re-watch the video Culley said 200 million globally!
Never said 200 million in U.S., LOL
—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes - (Adventrx paid for the market research, so results aren’t exactly unbiased.)

FACT - All Companies use outside market research companies/firms for their data, LOL
—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes - “In the real world, doctors in the U.S. do not use very much vinorelbine to treat non-small cell lung cancer patients, which is why sales are so low. The preferred chemotherapy regimen here is a combination of carboplatin and paclitaxel. (Vinorelbine is used more in Europe.)

FACT - LOL because they don’t want to deal with the possible lawsuits, do to side affects
Used more in Europe? We are going WorldWide! LOL

—————————————————– ——————————————-
Feuerstein writes - Adventrx also has problems with its second pipeline drug, a reformulation of the chemotherapy drug docetaxel known as ANX-514.
Docetaxel, sold under the brand name Taxotere by Sanofi-Aventis, is a $3 billion-dollar chemotherapy drug, so Adventrx is targeting a very lucrative commercial market.
Unfortunately, Adventrx has not established crystal-clear bioequivalence between ANX-514 and docetaxel based on the results from the company’s small pharmacokinetic study. Culley concedes that he can’t file for approval based on the data he has so far. The company is going to meet with the FDA to establish next steps, which may involve more clinical trials.

FACT - Guess he missed this one too!!!
12/01/2009 10:26 am et
(RTTNews) - Adventrx Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ANX: News ) reported that a new, recently completed preclinical study has affirmed the bioequivalence and comparable toxicity of ANX-514 and Taxotere.
Shin Poong Pharmaceuticals, Adventrx’s partner for ANX-514 in South Korea, independently conducted the study and data analysis.
———————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

That being said, I hope that my little security will survive the attack and climb back where it was before his malicious involvement.

I do hold position with Mercator Minerals (symbol ML on TSX: ML.TO) and considering that it’s made an impressive jump up since the end of 2009, I am wondering how much room is left before a typical correction pull back.

Following is a calculation made by a member of the Stockhouse Bull Board, named MoneyK.

Based on these numbers, here is his interpretation of the share price.

Q3 brought us revenues of:
Copper - 18 392 000$
Moly - 7 407 000$

Estimating an average sale price during this period of 2.50$ for copper and 11$ for moly, this gives us a production of:
Copper - 7 356 800 pounds
Moly - 673 364 pounds

Estimating that the production will remain the same in the next 3 quarters, this would mean that our annual production is now:
Copper - 29 427 200 pounds (target 50M lbs/year)
Moly - 2 693 454 pounds (target 10M lbs/year)

Now, calculating the annual revenus based on Q3 metal pricing, we get:
Copper - 73 568 000$
Moly - 29 627 972$
Total - 103 195 972$

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper - 29 427 200 * (2.50$ - 1$ ) = 44 140 800$
Moly - 2 693 452 * (11$ - 8.50$) = 6 733 630$
Total - 50 874 430$

50 874 430$ / 178M (shares) = 0.29$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 1.45$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 2.90$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 4.35$

We were right on at 2.90$
________________________________________________________________

With current metal prices: (Copper 3.00$, Moly 12$)

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper - 29 427 200 * (3.00$ - 1$ ) = 58 854 400$
Moly - 2 693 452 * (12$ - 8.50$) = 9 427 082$

Total - 68 281 482$

68 281 482$ / 178M (shares) = 0.38$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 1.90$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 3.80$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 5.70$

We are now heading to 3.80$ IMOH
________________________________________________________________

Potential with actual production and copper at 3.50$ and moly at 25$

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper - 29 427 200 * (3.50$ - 1$ ) = 73 568 000$
Moly - 2 693 452 * (25$ - 8.50$) = 44 481 958$

Total - 118 009 958$

118 009 958$ / 178M (shares) = 0.66$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 3.30$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 6.60$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 9.90$

We could see this shortly if moly goes up to 25$ and copper stays at 3.50$
_______________________________________________________________

Potential with full potential production and copper at 3.50$ and moly at 25$

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper - 50 000 000 * (3.50$ - 1$ ) = 125 000 000$
Moly - 10 000 000 * (25$ - 8.50$) = 165 000 000$

Total - 290 000 000$

290 000 000$ / 178M (shares) = 1.63$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 8.15$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 16.30$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 24.45$

________________________________________________________________

Potential with full potential production and my crazy imagination (copper at 4.00$ and moly at 40$)

Now calculating the annual profit based on cost:
Copper - 50 000 000 * (4.00$ - 1$ ) = 150 000 000$
Moly - 10 000 000 * (40$ - 8.50$) = 315 000 000$

Total - 465 000 000$

465 000 000$ / 178M (shares) = 2.61$ per share

Pessimistic forecast PE x5 = 13.05$
Realistic forecast PE x10 = 26.10$
Optimistic forecast PE x15 = 39.15$
________________________________________________________________

The last scenario is not likely to happen in the near future in my opinion, although some super optimistic persons may think that 2011 may bring such valuation.
But $3.80 I can see it happening.
The last SP was $3.23 but I am not sure it’s possible for the security to sustain the climb up without the necessary correction.

Some comparative charts to get a general idea about metals trend over the past two years follow.

News from Christmas eve.

“Link: https://www.etrade.wallst.com/v1/stocks/…
2:58 PM ET 12/24/09 | Dow Jones
DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

Sunesis Pharmaceuticals Inc. (SNSS) registered to offer up to $50 million in a combination of securities to fund further development of the biopharmaceutical company’s lead product, voreloxin.

The company–which said in a Securities and Exchange Commission filing that it could offer common stock, warrants or units–plans to use proceeds to fund working-capital needs, capital expenditures and other general corporate purposes.

Sunesis is planning for a Phase III development for the compound. Voreloxin is an anti-cancer quinolone derivative–a class of compounds that hasn’t been used for cancer treatment.

Last month, the company, which was founded in 1998 as Mosaic Pharmaceuticals, said the Food and Drug Administration had granted voreloxin orphan-drug designation for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia, or AML. Sunesis expects to launch a pivotal trial for AML next year, and it may seek a partnership to maximize commercial potential of the compound.

Last month, Sunesis reported its third-quarter loss narrowed on a 35% decline in operating expenses. Revenue also tumbled 97% to $12,500.

Shares were down 2.3%, or 3 cents, to $1.25 in after-hours trading. The stock has rebounded in recent months, but is still under the all-time high of more than $7 set in 2006.”

What’s going to happen next?

December 24, 2009- the security reached $1.28 and $1.24 in after hour trading.
December 28, 2009- it closed @ $1.15

What is to be understood from the above article: share dilution.

What I have learned from past experience with other security I took position in- namely CVM Cel-Sci Corp is that this is the kiss of death short term. CVM went through the same kind of scenario and currently is depressingly low, at below $1.(Update: on December 28, 2009 it closed at $0.93)

When they filled out the shelf offering, some people predicted the drop in share price and immediately brandished as being shorts. Others came up with the theory that something really, really good is just around the corner, just about to be announced and the company came up with the offering just in case. Guess what? The ‘shorts’ were right. Since the offering the security is in free fall.

Opinion from the SNSS message board:
“From what i have seen, it’s a shelf offering so the $50 million of shares have not been issued and there is nothing to say they will be either…at least not all of them.

Why is this somewhat positive? First, it increases SNSS’s leverage when negotiating a partnership. If companies think they are out of cash, they can either buy SNSS for cheap or make a deal with them that is not advantageous to them because SNSS would be viewed as desperate. Second, having money in the bank is always a good thing. The stock price is much higher than its been so why not raise additional capial? I rather they have working capital than none at all. Again, this is not a bad thing. The shorts are just trying to scare you and they aren’t very bright. I’m surprised how ignorant the shorts/bashers are here.”

As it can be seen, it follows the same path as CVM.

Holders of the SNSS should better brace themselves for a drop.
Even more proof: short interest increased a whooping 1168%!!!!

Short Interest (Shares Short)
570,700
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio)
0.0
Short Percent of Float
1.69 %
Short Interest - Prior
45,000
Short % Increase / Decrease
1168.22 %

Brendan Ryan | Mon, 14 Dec 2009 12:40
[miningmx.com] — JP Morgan analysts Steve Shepherd and Allan Cooke have turned even more bullish on platinum and gold, as well as South African platinum and gold equities.
That’s despite the numerous challenges faced by the SA miners. These include rand strength, the concerning outlook for electricity and water supply and the impact of various types of government involvement in the mining arena.
On gold, they said: “We see upside in the rand gold price and in our SA gold share picks, despite the challenging near-term operating environment in South Africa. We expect our gold share picks to outperform the gold price over the next six months.”
JP Morgan’s SA gold share picks are AngloGold Ashanti and Gold Fields. The analysts have also just upgraded DRDGOLD, changing their recommendation from “underweight” to “overweight” for investors’ portfolios.
They pointed out the most vulnerable stocks are Harmony and DRDGOLD, which had a high gearing to the rand/dollar exchange rate and cost inflation.
On platinum, Shepherd and Cooke summed up the situation as one of “solid demand and constrained supply outlook. Game on.”
They said: “We believe the ingredients may well be in place for the platinum group metals (PGM) basket to overshoot mid-cycle prices in the next couple of years and, if history repeats itself, equity prices should perform strongly in response to this.
“JP Morgan’s SA equities strategy to be overweight on platinum in 2010 reflects our expectations for this.”
Turning to the platinum shares, the analysts said: “Our top major pick remains Anglo Platinum, followed closely by Lonmin which we have upgraded from neutral to overweight.
“This said, we continue to expect the smaller names such as Northam (overweight) and Eastern Platinum (overweight) to be the top performers in 2010 due to a compelling valuation and the prospect for quantum production growth over the next five to 10 years.
“We are cautions on Impala Platinum (neutral), where we see some concerning management issues at its huge Rustenburg mine. Despite a good management team, we remain underweight on Aquarius Platinum due to its less favourable relative resources position and our valuation work.”
The analysts expected platinum demand to show progressive recovery, driven by a gradual recovery trend in global growth with emerging markets leading the way.
On the supply side, they believed a number of factors would adversely affect South African PGM production levels.
These included sharply reduced levels of capital expenditure; loss of production because of enforced safety-related interruptions to mining operations; concerns over future electricity supply from Eskom; worries over future water supplies and “developments of a political/taxation/ BEE [black economic empowerment] nature.”
Shepherd and Cooke said: “There appears to be an increasing risk that state interventions/involvement will tend to slow the rate of new PGM capacity investment in South Africa, which over time could add to PGM market tension.”
They said: “Given that the issues we highlight above pan out, we can only foresee that investors in commodities will continue to be attracted to PGM, adding further tension to the market. In this scenario we see the potential for prices of the metals to spike.”
On the gold sector, the analysts said they increased their near-term gold price forecast by 36% to $1,288 per ounce for 2010 and $1,225/oz for 2011.
They also strengthened their rand/dollar exchange rate forecast by 11% to R7.73/$1 in 2010 and R8.2/$1 in 2011.
They said: “Our outlook for the sector’s key drivers is much improved, with the rand gold price forecast to average around R320,000/kg over the next two years.
“If we are on the money, this will be good news for SA gold producers’ top lines that have sagged in 2009 under the weight of a stronger rand and lower production due to safety stoppages.”
Shepherd and Cooke commented the South African gold share ratings remained subdued and “quite frankly, are disappointing give the recovery in the rand gold price as the gold price has breached the $1,000/oz level.
“Our base case numbers continue to reflect multiples at around a 40% discount to the major North American gold miners. Relative to their ratings history and North American peer spot multiples, the shares continue to look inexpensive to us.”

The presentation of “The 67th Annual Golden Globe Awards” is going to take place on January 17, 2010.
Until then, you have the time to watch- if you wish it- the nominees and start rooting for your favorites.

Following is the list, as compiled by Daily Mail:

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Avatar
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basters
Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Up in the Air

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Emily Blunt -The Young Victoria
Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side
Helen Mirren - The Last Station
Carey Mulligan - An Education
Gabourey Sidibe - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA
Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart
George Clooney - Up in the Air
Colin Firth - A Single Man
Morgan Freeman - Invictus
Tobey Maguire - Brothers

BEST MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
(500) Days of Summer
The Hangover
It’s Complicated
Julie & Julia
Nine

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY OR
MUSICAL
Sandra Bullock - The Proposal
Marion Cotillard - Nine
Julia Roberts - Duplicity
Meryl Streep - It’s Complicated
Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – COMEDY
OR MUSICAL
Matt Damon - The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis - Nine
Robert Downey Jr. - Sherlock Holmes
Joseph Gordon-Levitt - (500) Days of Summer
Michael Stuhlbarg - A Serious Man

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A
MOTION PICTURE
Penélope Cruz - Nine
Vera Farmiga - Up in the Air
Anna Kendrick - Up in the Air
Mo’Nique - Precious: Based on the Novel Push by Sapphire
Julianne Moore - A Single Man

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A
MOTION PICTURE
Matt Damon - Invictus
Woody Harrselson - The Messenger
Christopher Plummer - The Last Station
Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones
Christop Waltz - Inglourious Basterds

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs
Coraline
Fantastic Mr. Fox
The Princess and the Frog
Up

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Baaria (Italy)
Broken Embraces (Spain)
The Maid (Chile)
A Prophet (France)

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE
Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker
James Cameron - Avatar
Clint Eastwood - Invictus
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE
Neill Blomkamp - District 9
Terri Tatchell and Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker
Nancy Meyers - It’s Complicated
Jason Reitman - Up in the Air
Sheldon Turner and Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE
Michael Giacchino - Up
Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant!
James Horner - Avatar
Abel Korzeniowski - A Single Man
Karen O and Carter Burwell - Where the Wild Things Are

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE
Cinema Italiano - Nine. Music & Lyrics by Maury Yeston
I Want to Come Home - Everybody’s Fine. Music & Lyrics by Paul McCartney
I Will See You - Avatar. Music by James Horner, Simon Franglen. Lyrics by James Horner, Simon Franglen, Kuk Harrell
The Weary Kind (Theme from Crazy Heart) - Crazy Heart. Music & Lyrics by Ryan Bingham, T Bone Burnett
Winter - Brothers. Music by U2, Lyrics by Bono

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Big Love
Dexter
House
Mad Men
True Blood

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Glenn Close - Damages
January Jones - Mad Men
Julianna Margulies - The Good Wife
Anna Paquin - True Blood
Kyra Sedgwick - The Closer

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – DRAMA
Simon Baker - The Mentalist
Michael C. Hall - Dexter
Jon Hamm - Mad Men
Hugh Laurie - House
Bill Paxton - Big Love

BEST TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
30 Rock
Entourage
Glee
Modern Family
The Office

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Toni Collette - United States of Tara
Courteney Cox - Cougar Town
Edie Falco - Nurse Jackie
Tina Fey - 30 Rock
Lea Michele - Glee

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A TELEVISION SERIES – COMEDY OR MUSICAL
Alec Baldwin - 30 Rock
Steve Carell - The Office
David Duchovny - Californication
Thomas Jane - Hung
Matthew Morrison - Glee

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Jane Adams - Hung
Rose Byrne - Damages
Jane Lynch - Glee
Janet McTeer - Into The Storm
Chloë Sevigny - Big Love

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN A SERIES, MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Michael Emerson - Lost
Neil Patrick Harris - How I Met Your Mother
William Hurt - Damages
John Lithgow - Dexter
Jeremy Piven - Entourage

BEST MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Georgia O’Keeffe
Grey Gardens
Into the Storm
Little Dorrit
Taking Chance

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Joan Allen - Georgia O’Keeffe
Drew Barrymore - Grey Gardens
Jessica Lange - Grey Gardens
Anna Paquin - The Courageous Heart of Irena Sendler
Sigourney Weaver - Prayers for Bobby

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MINI-SERIES OR MOTION PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Kevin Bacon - Taking Chance
Kenneth Branagh - Wallander: One Step Behind
Chiwetel Ejiofor - Endgame
Brendan Gleeson - Into the Storm
Jeremy Irons - Georgia O’Keeffe